In late April, India officially became the most populous nation in the world. With a young population and rapid economic growth, is the country on track to become a new superpower? According to United Nations estimates, based on census data, as well as birth and death rates, India today has at least 1,425,775,850 inhabitants, or, to simplify, 1.42 billion. This is the first time since population records began in the 1950s that China has not ranked first.
The news, however, was not hailed around the world as a sign that India has achieved a growing status as a global power. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin controversially suggested that while India may have more people, China still had “more talent”.
In Germany, Der Spiegel magazine responded to the news with a cartoon showing an overcrowded and decrepit “Indian” train overtaking a 21st-century “Chinese” high-speed train.
Many Indian politicians and commentators denounced the cartoon as racist. “Why doesn’t the developed world miss an opportunity to strike at India and humiliate its people? They have reason to worry: they are stuck in their old glory while a bleak future stares them in the face,” the tweet wrote. former governor of Punjab region Sarvesh Kaushal.
The controversy raises the question of what it means, beyond the symbolism, of India becoming the world’s most populous nation.
the Indian challenge
For Srikanth Kondapalli, an expert on Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, some reactions have been prejudiced and racist. “We believe population is an asset, not a problem,” he told DW.
According to the specialist, India’s median age is 27, below the global average, which could help the country reap “a demographic dividend”. “Baseline indicators are advancing, our literacy is increasing and health indicators are increasing. We are currently the fifth largest economy in the world and aim to be the third largest by 2030.”
India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and the World Bank expects the country to register a growth of 6.9% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the Asian country will have an average growth rate by 6.1% annually over the next five years.
While the country’s young population is often seen as an asset, the high unemployment rate among this segment of the population is also a problem. In December, the urban unemployment rate stood at 10.1%, with post-pandemic layoffs making the situation worse.
For well-qualified young people, the lack of well-paid, skilled jobs is particularly acute. In manufacturing centres, this has brought the unemployment rate close to 20% in some cases.
Unemployment and inflation have become the two main political issues in India ahead of the general election scheduled for May 2024. Kondapalli says it is clear what the policy goal should be if India is to capitalize on its growing population in the coming years.
“Improve infrastructure, develop skills, offer job opportunities, improve the working environment and work to improve other key indicators of human resource development”, underlines the expert.
A blurred view of Beijing
For China, the question of overtaking India is not only symbolic. Although China’s economy is four times the size of India’s, Beijing is aware of the country’s aging and shrinking population. The number of Chinese over the age of 65 will more than double by 2050, placing a huge burden on the workforce.
The Communist Party of China has introduced several measures to raise the birth rate. The reaction in Chinese state media to news that India has become the world’s most populous country indicates a degree of frustration with the situation.
“The United States is redoubling efforts to curb China’s development, advocates greater decoupling and finds new exaggerated points in the UN report. Such exaggeration lacks basic understanding of population development law,” said a commentary by state broadcaster CCTV.
Big but no superpowers
According to Kondapalli, China still surpasses India in important indicators, such as literacy and health, but the difference is not as great as that presented by Beijing.
The expert points out that population growth does not mean imminent superpower status for India. “GDP, technology, military power, soft power are the key to becoming a superpower. No country becomes a population-based superpower.”
Kondapalli argues that Beijing differs fundamentally from New Delhi on this issue in terms of ideology. “India does not aim to become a superpower. [o presidente chinês] Xi Jinping says China wants to take center stage, but the Indian leader has never said India wants to be a superpower.”
However, one of the pillars of China’s claim to this status, that of being the largest country in the world, has collapsed. Once India gets used to this new position, its ambitions may change.
Source: Terra
Rose James is a Gossipify movie and series reviewer known for her in-depth analysis and unique perspective on the latest releases. With a background in film studies, she provides engaging and informative reviews, and keeps readers up to date with industry trends and emerging talents.
