Hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens are estimated to have fled the country since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens have fled the country since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, according to estimates. In this report, understand where these estimates come from, who they are, where they’re going, and why they’re leaving.
Svetlana is one of those people. She is in her early 30s and lived in a small town until she moved to Moscow at 18 to study physics at university.
After graduation, Svetlana worked as a product manager in various companies.
“I never thought I’d have to leave [do país]my plans were to retire to Moscow,” he says. “I love Russia and have enjoyed my life.”
Russian citizens had left the country since before the war in Ukraine. Among them were people who disagreed with Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and new laws that made it easier to punish dissidents.
Many of these people settled in the Baltic nations (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and other European Union countries besides Georgia.
For Svetlana, the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was the turning point.
“When the war started, I knew it wasn’t going to end soon and also that people weren’t coming to protest,” she says. “I realized, rationally and emotionally, that it made sense to leave.”
Svetlana now lives in the capital of Serbia – Belgrade. “I wanted to stay as far away from the authorities as possible.”
Many Russian citizens have had the same feeling as Svetlana and what was once the exception has become a continuous stream.
The first wave came in March and April of last year. The new expats told the BBC they were against the war and were disappointed that few Russian citizens came out to protest.
Feeling isolated and at risk, they realized it was safer to leave the country.
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military mobilization in September 2022. Described as “partial” by the authorities, it has actually increased the number of men at risk of being called up.
Several reports of poor training and insufficient equipment for the new enlistees followed. Men and their families began leaving the country en masse, creating day-long queues on Russia’s borders with Georgia and Kazakhstan.
Russian President Dmitry Peskov’s official spokesman denied that Russian citizens were leaving the country en masse to avoid being drafted into the war.
In April, Russian authorities introduced ‘online summons’, which allowed new summons to be added to a digital register instead of receiving documents in person.
Peskov also denied that the new system was designed to halt the flow of men leaving the country.
How many are left and where did they go?
There are no exact figures on how many people left Russia. But estimates range from hundreds of thousands to several million.
In May, the British Ministry of Defense estimated that 1.3 million people will leave Russia in 2022. Other estimates from various sources confirm this trend.
Citing inside sources among Russian officials, Forbes magazine said 600,000 to one million people left Russia in 2022. And two independent Russian media outlets, Bell and RTVi, have published similar figures.
Leaving Russia is relatively easy as long as you have money and haven’t been drafted into the military. The hard part is finding a permanent place to stay.
In the months following the outbreak of war, many countries, particularly in the European Union and the United States, made it difficult for Russian citizens to apply for visas unless they already had family in the country or were traveling on business.
In many other places, such as Georgia and Armenia, Russians have had no restrictions and can, to this day, come and go as they please.
Other countries, including Kazakhstan, changed their legislation earlier this year, presumably to curb the flow of Russian migrants by reducing the number of days they can stay as tourists.
With no prospect of returning to Russia, more and more people are having to apply for residency in order to work in the countries where they settle. Many may find ways to continue working remotely for their Russian employers.
We know that, in the last 15 months, approximately 155,000 Russian citizens have been granted temporary residence permits in the countries of the European Union and in several nations of the Balkans, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Some 17,000 Russians have applied for political asylum in the European Union, but only around 2,000 have been approved, according to the European Asylum Agency. The Russian Interior Ministry says there was a 40% increase in applications for foreign passports in 2022, compared to the previous year.
‘I was terrified’
Since the beginning of the war we have spoken to dozens of Russian citizens who have fled the country.
They have different professions. Some are journalists like us, while others are IT specialists, designers, artists, academics, lawyers, doctors, public relations and linguists.
Most of them are under 50. Many share the liberal views of the West and hope that Russia will one day become a democratic country. Some come from the LGBTQ+ community.
Sociologists studying current Russian emigration say there is evidence that people who leave the country are younger, better educated and wealthier than those who stay in Russia. Most come from big cities.
Thomas, for example, is from St. Petersburg.
“I’m a pacifist and I was terrified of being sent out to kill other people,” he says. “I have been against the Russian policy towards Ukraine since 2014. The invasion and killing of civilians is unacceptable.”
Thomas says that, after the invasion began, he posted anti-war messages on social media and participated in street protests. As a homosexual, he was concerned about his safety.
“When Russia adopted ‘ban gay propaganda’ and ‘fake news’ laws on the Russian military, I knew the threat to my life and freedom increased,” he says.
Thomas sought political asylum in Sweden and tried to explain to the country’s authorities the dangers of returning to Russia. His request was denied, but he appealed the decision.
“Because I’m only entitled to a limited time with a public defender, I’m working alone to gather evidence in my defense,” he says.
Sergei, from the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don (120km from the Ukrainian border), faces a variety of different problems.
It is now located in the capital of Georgia, Tbilisi. The day Russia invaded Ukraine, he called several of her friends and they all agreed that war was bad news.
“Whatever happens next, the economy would collapse,” he said. “A week later, we all got together and decided we had to get ready [para deixar o país].”
Sergei says that as the days went by the war got closer.
“We saw a lot of military equipment on its way to Ukraine,” he says. “The hospitals were full of wounded. Rostov airport was closed to civilian flights, but there were many planes and we knew where they were going.”
In September, after Putin’s rally speech, Sergei’s mother – who had criticized him for his lack of patriotism – phoned him and told him: “pack your bags and go”. He then drove overnight to Georgia, where he currently lives.
“My wife and son are still in Russia,” he says. “I have to pay your expenses and lodging there and mine here. I work two jobs: one remote for my company in Russia and the other here at a friend’s small business.”
Sergei says he is saving up money to get his family out of Russia and move to another country. He says his wife was reluctant, but now agrees they need to look elsewhere for a new life.
What does this mean for Russia?
Russian authorities have tried to minimize the impact of the hundreds of thousands of educated and wealthy people leaving the country with their money, but the economic consequences are clear.
Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest private bank, estimates that 1.5% of the entire workforce may have left the country. With most of the leavers being highly skilled professionals, companies are complaining of staff shortages and recruitment difficulties.
The Central Bank of Russia reported early in the war that Russian citizens withdrew a record 1.2 trillion rubles (about $15 billion) from their accounts. It’s a scale not seen in Russia since the 2008 financial crisis.
Economist Sergei Smirnov of the Russian National Academy of Sciences believes the general trend is that highly skilled people continue to look for ways to leave the country.
“There will be more and more demand for people who can fix cars or make shoes,” he says. “I don’t like doomsday scenarios, but I believe this will cause the productivity of the Russian economy to continue to decline over time.”
The economist points out that these trends will mainly affect large cities, such as Moscow, St. Petersburg and Ekaterinburg.
“Most of the Russian territory will not undergo these transformations because the standard of living in cities, towns and small villages has always been low and will continue to be low in the future,” explains Smirnov.
Svetlana in Belgrade has no plans to return to Russia. “I’m working at a startup based in Moldova, but I recently applied for a job in the Netherlands.”
In Tbilisi, Sergei is applying for a job in Europe. Currently, your life is difficult. “I don’t have any days off,” he says. “Sometimes I don’t have enough time for a night’s sleep and I nap in the car.”
Thomas, a Swede, hopes he won’t be forced to return to Russia, where he fears homophobic abuse. He is learning Swedish to find a job.
Edited by Kateryna Khinkulova.
Source: Terra
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