Who are the ‘lunarists’, the Bolsonaro voters who now approve of Lula

Polls indicate that a small fraction of voters who voted for Bolsonaro welcome the first months of the current government. But who are they? And why did they “change” their minds?

Six months into President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) third term, public opinion research institutes have begun to detect an unexpected phenomenon.

In a still polarized political scenario, a part of the voters who say they voted for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the second round of the 2022 elections welcome the government of Lula, the former president’s main political opponent.

The results seemingly run counter to what polls showed in the latter stretch of last year’s fierce election campaign, when the share of voters for Lula and Bolsonaro fluctuated little.

This indicated a strong preference and rejection by groups for Lula and Bolsonaro. Those who supported Lula rejected Bolsonaro and vice versa.

Now, some of these same research institutes are starting to show a change in this scenario.

And the exclusive data obtained by BBC News Brasil helps to understand who these “lunarists” are, the Bolsonarists who now endorse Lula.

What do the polls say?

A government evaluation poll conducted by IPEC showed that 37% of all respondents approve of the Lula government, rating it as excellent or good.

Another 28% of respondents disapprove of the government, classifying it as bad or terrible. Moreover, 32% judged the government to be right and 3% did not know it or did not respond.

Between 1 and 5 June two thousand people were interviewed in 127 municipalities and the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

The institute’s breakdown of this data went further and showed that Bolsonaro’s voters have begun to approve of the Lula government.

IPEC asked respondents who they voted for in the second round of the elections.

The poll shows that 8% of respondents who said they voted for Bolsonaro approve of their main political opponent’s government rating it as great or good.

Considering the margin of error, this value can be between 6% and 10%.

The poll also asked whether respondents approved of Lula’s way of running the country.

In this article, 19% of those who say they voted for Bolsonaro in the second round said they approve of the way the PT is running the government.

Who are the “lunarists”?

Data from this poll obtained by BBC News Brasil reveals who Bolsonaro voters are rating the Lula government as excellent or good.

The majority profile of the “lunarists” is as follows:

• Women (55%);
• they are between 25 and 34 years old (29%) and between 45 and 59 years old (30%);
• Black or brown (52%);
• Catholics (53%);
• They studied up to high school (42%);
• They are in the southeast (32%);
• And they live in inland cities (65%).

Quaest, which published a government assessment survey in June, also noted the approval of the Lula government by the Bolsonarista electorate.

The poll found that 22% of respondents who say they voted for Bolsonaro in the second round approve of the Lula government.

The survey was conducted on 2,029 people between June 15 and 18 in 120 municipalities and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

Why do Bolsonarists approve of Lula?

For the president of Ipec, Márcia Cavallari, the approval of Lula among Bolsonaro’s voters affects a less ideological part of the Bolsonarista electorate.

These are people whose opinion is most influenced by economic factors such as reduced inflation, increased purchasing power and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

“The voting decision is not purely ideological. So, as the government advances, even those who did not vote for Lula and did vote for Bolsonaro will evaluate the government and may change their position,” Cavallari told BBC News Brasil.

The IPEC president attributes this approval of Lula among Bolsonaro voters to the feeling of improvement in the economy.

“This happens because of the perception that inflation and the cost of living have gone down. There is a perception that the economic indicators are better, that he (Lula) would realize what he said in the campaign and that he is taking action to fight against hunger and poverty”, says Cavallari.

“The voter is saying, ‘I didn’t vote for him, but I’m seeing what’s going on.’ The voter is repositioning himself.”

Even the director of Quaest, Felipe Nunes, believes that the perception of an improvement in the political scenario may have influenced some of the voters who voted for Bolsonaro and who now approve of the Lula administration.

He explains that Bolsonaro’s electorate is made up of an ideological base and a pragmatic one.

Ideology supports the former president based on the ideas he defended —Bolsonaro has become known for taking a stand against the expansion of women’s rights and LGBTQIA+ and the decriminalization of drugs, and for strongly associating with segments considered more conservative in the society, like the evangelical electorate, Nunes points out.

He says, however, that Bolsonaro’s “pragmatic” electorate is the one who noticed an improvement in the economic environment late last year, as the government created social benefits on the eve of the election period.

According to Nunes, it is this part of the Bolsonarista electorate that now approves of the Lula government.

“This electorate that votes not for ideology, but for pragmatism, is what’s moving at the moment. It’s a minority, but it exists,” Nunes told BBC News Brasil.

Nunes cites as examples of this pragmatism the responses of respondents who said they voted for Bolsonaro to questions about the country’s economy.

“In the case of food, half of the population say the price has stopped going up, which is very important. When it comes to fuel, a portion of this electorate say the price has gone down,” Nunes says.

“When you combine falling fuel prices on the one hand and the perception that food prices have stopped rising on the other, you have a directly observed economic effect.”

The HICP-15 (National Consumer Price Index – Extended 15), known as the official inflation preview, decelerated in June for the fourth consecutive month, to 0.04%, according to the IBGE. It was the smallest monthly change since September 2022, when there was deflation of 0.37%.

Esther Solano, a professor of social sciences at the University of São Paulo (USP), says this understanding that the Bolsonarist electorate is not homogeneous is key to understanding the emergence of “lunarists”.

“We have, on the one hand, the most ideological electorate, the most radicalized and loyal to the president. Then, we also have a more moderate electorate who actually voted for Bolsonaro, but who didn’t adopt such an angry, violent attitude and discourse against – Aggressive PT,” says Solano.

“In this more moderate electorate, a large part has already voted for Lula in past administrations and has positive memories of those governments”.

For the USP professor, this is not a former president’s prison base.

When asked if this support could be reflected in the 2024 municipal elections, Esther Solano follows the same line as Márcia Cavallari and Felipe Nunes in stating that the PT must be strengthened, but that the Bolsonarista current must also remain strong.

“The PT camp enters with more force because it is in power, and the traditional center-right continues to have a big problem because it does not restructure and reinvent itself,” says Solano.

“Even now with Bolsonaro’s ineligibility, the Bolsonarista ecosystem is very important. Digitally, they are still protagonists. It still has a huge symbolic force”.

flimsy support

Although the two institutes have registered the existence of Bolsonaro voters who approve of the Lula government, the directors of Ipec and Quaest say that this does not mean that these voters would vote for the PT in any new dispute against the former president.

According to them, the conversion of consents into votes depends on other factors that are not limited to the perception of the economic situation.

“The election is the result of a debate and a confrontation. The government may celebrate this approval, but that is no guarantee of electoral success later on,” says Nunes.

“If the main theme of the upcoming elections were values ​​or customs, this positive evaluation of the economy will not help or, at least, will not be predominant,” continues Nunes.

Márcia Cavallari agrees that government approval alone is not enough.

“The person may now be approving the government, but that doesn’t mean they will necessarily vote for this ruler. You need to keep this voter first,” he says.

According to her, the elections in Brazil are characterized by a personalization of the dispute around the figure of the candidates and by a poor identification of the voters with the parties.

“It takes a lot more (than economic improvement) to build loyalty. It has a strong element of empathy because people can’t distinguish the differences between parties, it’s a very personified election,” Cavallari says.

This means that the personal characteristics of the candidate have a very high weight in the voting decision.

Loyalty of new voters is even more difficult in this scenario, especially if they are in a different political camp than the candidate seeking their votes.

“It is still early to say that there is loyalty (for Lula of the elector who voted for Bolsonaro),” says Cavallari.

Nunes sees a possible ceiling for Lula’s approval among Bolsonaro voters.

“I have doubts if this phenomenon will continue or if there will be a larger contingent than we have observed (so far) because we would reach the limit of what would be Bolsonaro’s pragmatic electorate. This electorate is smaller (compared to the ideological one) . )”, He says.

For Esther Solano, Bolsonar’s support for Lula is fragile and depends on whether the party will gain space in debates where Bolsonarism is dominant, such as “the values ​​of anti-politics, the fight against corruption, order and faith” .

“If the PT could make this ideological dispute about principles, values ​​and symbolic issues, then it would in fact have greater strength.”

Source: Terra

Rose

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