According to Climatempo, the month is expected to see more rain in the south of the country and drought in the north and northeast, putting RS and AM, which are already suffering from floods and droughts respectively, on alert.
A extreme heat wave in late winter and early spring, this year took many people by surprise. According to data from National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), 2023 had the warmest September in 80 years. And, with the arrival of October, the the heat must persisttogether with the rains in the south of the country.
According to Climatempo, unlike September, the month of October is historically a month with higher temperaturesand it is possible that the record heat wave that occurred in the spring of 2020 will also be repeated in 2023. Furthermore, the El Nino is expected to continue to influence the global climate and that of Brazil.
“This event is already considered strong and the phenomenon will act throughout the spring of 2023 and the summer of 2023/2024. The main global climate monitoring centers indicate that El Niño will weaken only during the autumn of 2024,” he says the climate.
In October, the effect of the El Niño expected for Brazil is an intensification of rainfall in the South and a decrease in rainfall in the North and Northeast. In other words, there are great possibilities for new things floods in Rio Grande do Sul and a worsening of the – already serious – situation of drought in the Amazon.
In all of Brazil there must be some of it instability in the rain cycle. “Periods of three to five days with virtually no rain will be common, which reflects this irregularity, this change in wind circulation caused by El Niño,” says Vinícius Lucyrio, meteorologist at Climatempo.
It is worth remembering that El Niño is a phenomenon caused by the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean near the Equator, off the coast of Peru.
Although this increase in temperature is common at this time of year, due to the greater incidence of sunlight in the region, given the earth’s position relative to the Sun, the phenomenon – as well as its effects – are intensified by climate change. .
High temperatures across Brazil
El Niño also helps create more areas of high atmospheric pressure, which intensify the heat. Here because, it is possible that new extreme heat waves may occur.
According to Metsul, high temperatures will persist throughout Brazil in October, but especially in the central-western area, where the climate will become drier. In the South and South-East, the greater incidence of rainfall should help stop the expansion of the heat to extreme levels; the trend is towards warm days and milder nights.
In Climatempo’s heat map for October, you can see that the temperature is expected to be above average across the country. In the red zone, which covers most of the country and especially the center, temperatures can be 2°C to 3°C above the normal average. In the pink areas, temperatures rise less: up to 1°C above normal climatological averages.
This prediction means that, in São Paulo, where the average maximum temperature in October is usually 24ºC and the minimum 16ºC, in 2023 we should have average thermometers between 18ºC and 26ºC.
Source: Terra
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