For now, Hezbollah, Israel and Iran are all standing back, like old enemies assessing new realities. However, the situation can escalate and reach even greater levels.
The second-in-command of Hezbollah – the powerful Iranian-backed Lebanese group – said Israel’s counteroffensive against Hamas in Gaza poses the risk of a wider war in the Middle East.
Naim Qassem told the BBC that “very serious and very dangerous consequences could occur in the region and no one will be able to stop them.”
Hezbollah’s deputy leader gave an interview in Beirut after Hamas’s Ministry of Health in Gaza said more than 10,000 people had been killed in the recent conflict.
The Israeli attack began after the Hamas offensive on October 7, which killed 1,400 people, including 1,000 civilians.
“The danger is real,” he said, “because Israel has increased its attacks on civilians and killed more women and children. Is it possible for this to continue and increase, without bringing real danger to the region? I don’t think SO. “
He insisted that any escalation would be linked to Israel’s actions. “Every possibility has an answer,” she said.
Israel denies any intention to target civilians and says all targets in the operation are Hamas members or part of the Palestinian group’s infrastructure.
Hezbollah, “God’s Party,” has many possibilities.
The Shiite Islamic group – classified as a terrorist organization by the UK, US and the Arab League – is the largest political and military force in Lebanon.
So far, its response to the war in Gaza has consisted of amplifying its warnings and carefully evaluating its actions.
On Sunday, when an Israeli attack killed a woman and three children in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah used Grad rockets for the first time in the conflict, killing an Israeli civilian.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened that every civilian death in Lebanon will lead to another across the border. But he clearly has not announced that he will participate in the war against Israel.
While insisting that “all options are on the table,” the group has limited itself to cross-border attacks, hitting mainly military targets.
More than 60 of its fighters have been killed, but the group has many more fighters ready for a possible battle to replace them.
A fighter buried in Beirut this week was the fifth member of his family to die for Hezbollah.
During the interview, the organization’s deputy leader tried to paint Hezbollah as a defensive organization, even though it is committed to the destruction of Israel and triggered a war with the country in 2006, kidnapping two of its soldiers in an attack beyond the border.
Qassem said Israel “initiated an attack on Gaza in a heinous manner.”
When the BBC pointed out that it was Hamas that attacked Israel on October 7, it defended the attacks as an inevitable response to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands.
He repeated the unsubstantiated claim that it was Israeli forces, and not Hamas, who killed many Israeli civilians. But what about the helmet cameras – used by Hamas militants themselves – that show them carrying out a series of killings?
He avoided the question. “Why don’t we look at what Israel did in Gaza?” she said. “They kill civilians and destroy homes.”
He called the Hamas attacks “a great achievement for the Palestinian resistance.” What about the 10,000 Gazans who have been killed since then? “The massacres committed by Israel increasingly mobilize Palestinians to cling to their lands,” she responded.
He admitted that Iran “supports and finances” Hezbollah, but said he had given no orders. However, according to experts, Tehran will make the decisions and decide whether or not to start a total war.
And if Israeli forces were to fight a second-front war with Hezbollah, they will face an enemy with more weapons than most countries. The group is much larger than Hamas and has around 150,000 rockets and missiles.
It has up to 60,000 fighters, including special forces, regular fighters and reserves, according to Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based defense and security consultant who has studied Hezbollah for decades.
In 2006, the group fought Israel to the end, but Lebanon suffered many more deaths. More than 1,000 people were killed, most of them civilians, and entire neighborhoods were razed in Hezbollah strongholds. Israel lost 121 soldiers and 44 civilians.
Since then, Lebanon has experienced one crisis after another, with the devastating explosion in the port of Beirut in 2020, the collapse of the economy and the disintegration of the political system. It is no wonder that few in the country have an appetite for war.
Many fear that Hezbollah’s cross-border attacks could drag the country into a war they want to avoid.
“It is the right of every Lebanese to be afraid of war,” he said. “This is normal. Nobody likes war. Tell the Israeli authorities to stop the attacks so that the battles don’t escalate,” Qassem says.
There are many possibilities for escalating future conflict. But a war that includes Hezbollah and Israel would bring widespread devastation, Blanford says.
“What is happening in Gaza will seem like a walk in the park,” he told the BBC.
“Israel will be confined during the conflict. Most of its population will have to remain in bomb shelters,” he said.
“There would be no civil aviation or maritime traffic. Hezbollah’s largest guided missiles could hit military targets throughout the country.”
As for Lebanon, he said Israel will reduce it to a “parking lot.”
For now, Hezbollah, Israel and Iran are all standing back, like old enemies assessing new realities.
This does not mean that there will not be an all-out war, by miscalculation, if not intentionally.
This is a dangerous new chapter in a blood-soaked region. After October 7th the only certainties still seem to be anguish, death and destruction.
Source: Terra
Rose James is a Gossipify movie and series reviewer known for her in-depth analysis and unique perspective on the latest releases. With a background in film studies, she provides engaging and informative reviews, and keeps readers up to date with industry trends and emerging talents.
