The spot dollar ended Thursday with slight gains against the real, bucking the broader trend of the US currency abroad falling against other currencies, with investors awaiting new data from the US labor market on Friday.
The cash dollar ended the day at 4.9088 reais, up 0.13%. In December the dollar accumulated a decline of 0.13%.
On B3, as of 5:12 pm (Brasilia time), the front-month dollar futures contract rose 0.14% to 4.9190 reais.
In the morning, the dollar fluctuated between highs and lows at different times, but within narrow margins, with the North American currency unable to achieve larger moves.
At the session low, at 10:07 am, the dollar reached 4.8799 reais (-0.45%). At its peak, at 11:56, it reached 4.9160 reais (+0.28%). From minimum to maximum, the variation was just 0.74%, a clear sign that activity has remained stagnant.
“Everyone keeps an eye on the ‘payroll’,” summarized Thiago Avallone, foreign exchange specialist at Manchester Investimentos, justifying the limited price variation on Thursday.
The market read is that the payroll employment report may or may not corroborate the most recent North American labor market data, which has indicated a slowdown in job creation.
On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that job postings, a measure of labor demand, fell by 617,000 to 8.733 million in October, according to the JOLTS report. On Wednesday, ADP’s national jobs report reported that 103,000 private sector jobs opened in the United States in November, well below the 130,000 expected in a Reuters poll.
A weak payroll, the market believes, will reinforce the latest bets that the Federal Reserve will begin the process of cutting interest rates as early as March next year – which, in theory, could serve as a new downward stimulus for the dollar. Around the world.
“But you have to be careful in Brazil, because at the beginning we will not see a significant drop (in the dollar), because historically multinationals and funds usually send resources abroad in December,” reflects Avallone.
In practice, year-end remittances tend to support the dollar to higher levels this Friday, even as payrolls bring a new negative bias for the US currency.
Overseas, the dollar index – which compares the US currency to a basket of strong pairs – remained at lows late Thursday afternoon, driven primarily by the rising yen, after Japan’s central bank indicated that the Your interest rates could move out of negative territory.
The dollar’s main orientation was also bearish against other emerging and commodity export currencies. Some exceptions occurred in Brazil and Mexico, where the dollar appreciated.
At 5.12pm (Brasilia time), the dollar index – which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six currencies – fell 0.59% to 103.540.
In the morning the Central Bank sold all 16,000 traditional currency swap contracts offered in the rollover of February maturities.
In the afternoon, the BC reported that Brazil recorded an overall positive foreign exchange flow of $296 million in November. Through the financial channel, net outflows of 703 million dollars were recorded in the period and, through the commercial channel, inflows of 999 million dollars.
Source: Terra
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