In 2023, the country had 18% of the year with high temperatures, but lacks the infrastructure to cope with climate change.
With nine heat waves in 2023 and following a global trend, Brazil is expected to continue with a string of record temperatures in 2024, according to experts interviewed by DW. The big problem is that the country’s infrastructure is not prepared for it.
“We will enter a year in which extremes will become even more frequent and, in some cases, with greater intensity,” says Gilvan Sampaio, coordinator of Earth Sciences at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE).
Is Brazil ready for new heat waves in 2024? (Photo: Getty Images)
In addition to the strong heat in the South-East and Central-West, droughts of varying intensity are likely in the North-East and rain and floods in the South.
In 2023, the country had 65 very hot days, equal to almost a fifth of the year (18%), according to data from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet). Between July and November, five consecutive average temperature records were recorded. New heat waves will occur this summer and throughout the first half of 2024.
Health consequences
But what could the increasingly frequent heat waves represent? The impact can be felt from health to nature issues.
“Extreme heat impacts people and natural systems in Brazil. The 2023 heat waves were accompanied by high relative humidity, which impacts people,” explains Yasna Palmeiro, researcher at Lancet Countdown Latin America, citing the risks of fainting, heart disease and even death.
In November, the temperature reached 45ºC in Araçuaí, in the interior of Minas Gerais, and the city of Rio de Janeiro recorded a record thermal sensation of 58.5ºC.
OR Extreme heat has increased the number of doctor visits and delayed maintenance of the main water treatment plant.
Assistance in the health network increased by heat-related diagnoses such as malaise, fatigue, low blood pressure and syncope. In the second week of November, the hottest of the month, the movement was 51% greater than in the second week of the previous month. The municipality opened 100 hydration points, accelerated reforestation and the use of drones for planting.
Causes of extreme heat
The year of atypical heat was caused by several factors. One of these was the impact of the El Niño phenomenon, characterized by the anomalous and persistent warming of the surface of the Pacific Ocean in the Equator region.
For experts, the increasingly frequent heat waves are also due to global warming.
“In addition to the rise in ocean temperatures, other factors have contributed to the occurrence of increasingly extreme events, such as the increase in the global temperature of the Earth’s surface due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions,” notes Inmet.
“The oceans produce more steam, which warms the atmosphere, and this intensifies heat waves,” says Regina Rodrigues, a scientist at the Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC).
Data from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 43% by 2030 (compared to 2019) to limit temperature rise to 1.5ºC by the end of century compared to pre-industrial levels. levels and avoid catastrophic impacts such as heat waves, droughts and more frequent and intense rainfall.
“Brazil has experienced the effects of climate changeThis happens in a special way for three main reasons: the large geographical size, the different natural ecological niches and the megacities”, explains researcher Yasna Palmeiro, of Lancet Countdown Latin America.
A recent Lancet Countdown for Brazil lists this year’s extreme events, such as the winter heat wave that hit much of the country, catastrophic flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, and record droughts and forest fires in the Amazon region.
“So far, 2023 has been a year of extreme weather events in the world and Brazil has been no exception,” the document continues, stating that “climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.”
Maria Netto, executive director of the Institute for Climate and Science (ICS), explains that the big news is that these phenomena have occurred in an exacerbated way in the last five years, with greater frequency and intensity.
“Brazil has historically not had a very clear vision on how to finance the adaptation and resilience of our infrastructure and our economy to these climate events,” says Maria Netto.
Unpreparedness of infrastructure
Netto’s opinion is shared by all experts interviewed by DW: Brazil currently does not have the necessary capacity to deal with climate change, like most of the world.
“It’s very clear that the country is not prepared to cope with the increase in the frequency and intensity of intense climate events”, underlines physicist Paulo Artaxo, scientist of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“We are not prepared Impossible for this type of extreme event, neither in Brazil nor in the world. But we must prepare,” said the national secretary for climate change, Ana Toni, at a recent event.
For the ICS director, a comprehensive policy and in-depth analysis of how to promote greater resilience and response to climate events would be needed.
“We lack financial tools, parametric risk analyses, in-depth fiscal analyzes of economic costs that result in agile risk-sharing mechanisms and rapid responses to climate events,” he points out.
What Brazil is already doing
However, Netto believes that the government is aware of the problem and that sectoral studies to promote adaptation already exist, within the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MMA).
“It will be fundamental give priority in an integrated way the need to a national adaptation plan and subnational plans which can facilitate better adaptation, prevention, resilience, risk management and rapid response mechanisms,” he explains.
Toni underlines that the The effects of climate change are appearing faster than expected. According to Toni, from the federal government’s point of view, the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (CIM) has decided to create at least 14 adaptation plans in different sectors, such as energy, agriculture, cities and transport.
In addition to planning, greater inclusion of climate risk criteria and operational actions, experts underline the need to counteract the evolution of the greenhouse effect.
“We know the solutions to solve the problem: putting an end to fossil fuels and tropical deforestation. It seems simple, but it implies the complete reorganization of the world economy”, underlines the coordinator of International Policies of the Climate Observatory, Claudio Angelo.
And extreme events don’t just worry experts: climate change and threats to the environment are a reason for fear for 32% of those interviewed in the Brazil section of the What Worries the World survey, conducted by the Ipsos Institute in October – an index very good, higher than the 20% recorded in the previous survey.
“It is undeniable that Brazilians have felt the effects of these problems on their skin,” says Ipsos Brasil CEO Marcos Caliari.
Source: Terra
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