According to analysts, the rebels have much to gain from the clash on the Red Sea. They seek recognition as a national government, and US attacks help them strengthen their internal and external legitimacy. The current escalation between Yemen’s Houthi rebel group and the US-led naval coalition in the Red Sea serves Iranian-backed militants well. ways. Indeed, according to some analysts, it is even welcome.
“The Houthis are looking for an opportunity to confront the United States,” Hisham al-Omeisy, conflict analyst in Yemen and former director of the Yemeni Intelligence Research Center in Washington, tells DW. “For the last eight years they have been telling their followers that they are at war with the United States and Israel, so this is a golden opportunity for them to take advantage of.”
Yemen has been in civil war since 2014, when the Iranian-backed Houthi rebel group began fighting the Saudi-backed national government. Nine years of fighting have left Yemen divided between the north and west of the country, controlled by the Houthis, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait leading to the Red Sea, and the south, controlled by the internationally recognized government and the its internal allies. Local tribes dominate the east.
According to the United Nations, Yemen’s infrastructure has been severely damaged and the conflict has thrown the population into one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world.
Meanwhile, the Houthis – officially called Ansar Allah – are in talks with Saudi Arabia over a long-term ceasefire. This month, US special envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking is expected to announce a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
“Forcing the Saudis to accept them [como o governo nacional do Iêmen]the Houthis expect the rest of the world to follow them and grant them international legitimacy,” al-Omeisy said.
So far only Iran recognizes the Houthis as Yemen’s legitimate government, Thomas Juneau, associate professor at the University of Ottawa in Canada and Middle East analyst, told DW.
“They want to force the international community to deal with them by hijacking ships, launching missiles and negotiating with Saudi Arabia, and they want to be seen as a key member of the resistance axis led by Iran,” he explains, referring to the network of supported groups from Iran throughout the region who oppose the United States and Israel.
The Houthis have already “won”
The Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea largely disrupted a vital international trade route and were, the militia said, a response to Israeli military retaliation in Gaza for the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terror attack.
“The Houthi attacks scare me because they threaten our fragile stability,” Manar Saleh, a 20-year-old woman living in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, tells DW. “Yemen has not experienced peace and stability for nine years.” In her view, Palestinians in Gaza need to be supported, but ideally in ways that do not involve “sacrificing the situation in Yemen again.”
Um Ammar, a mother of five in Sanaa, told DW that she too was willing to support the Palestinians “in every way possible”.
“But I hope without damaging our country”, he underlines.
“Public opinion largely supports the Houthis, because Yemenis are very committed to the Palestinian cause,” Abdulghani al-Iryani, senior researcher at the Yemeni think tank Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, tells DW.
In recent weeks he has observed a change in attitudes towards the Houthis. “The Houthis have finally gained widespread popular support, after being hated for years, for being too harsh towards the people under their control, for their corruption, oppression and supremacist ideology,” al-Iryani tells DW. The Houthis “won this confrontation the day they launched the first missile,” she added.
Military triumph is not necessarily the goal
Mohamed al-Iriani, a researcher at the Yemen Policy Center, said that so far this fight is not aimed at seeking a military victory for the Houthis. As it stands, the US-led naval coalition against the Houthis has not achieved military victory either.
“This gives the Houthis space for further provocations, and their strategy appears to depend on the expectation that the United States, currently preoccupied with its domestic electoral politics, has a limited ability to react effectively,” al-Iriani tells DW .
Furthermore, this appears to be a low-cost conflict for the Iranian-backed Houthis: a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Red Sea costs around $1,200, while for the US-led alliance the costs are significantly higher, around 1.5 million. dollars per missile, al-Omeisy noted.
A ground offensive would also benefit the Houthis, he warned. “The presence of military personnel on the ground would strengthen the legitimacy of the Houthis not only in Yemen, but also regionally.”
“We have noticed a trend in recent weeks where even anti-Houthis now sympathize with them,” al-Omeisy said, adding that the rebel group has also used the war in Gaza to launch a major recruitment drive.
“You have to remember that this is a country where 80% of the population needs help and many people are poor. So if this situation gives them the opportunity to put bread on the table, through employment in the army or one of the other factions, they will take advantage of it,” al-Omeisy reports. “The Yemenis do not want war, but if it is imposed on them, they are great fighters, as they have demonstrated over the last eight years.”
DW correspondent Safia Mahdi from Yemen contributed to this article.
Source: Terra
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