The current situation is similar to that of April 4, 1949: the free West unites against the threat from the East, under the nuclear shield of the United States. Much depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, and Russia remains the greatest danger. 75 candles are burned on the birthday cake of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The oldest military alliance in the world and the only one formed by democratic states, it remains attractive: founded on 4 April 1949 with 12 members, today it brings together another 20, the latest of which is Finland and Sweden, which seek to protect themselves in relation with Russia. For the same reason, the entry of Ukraine and Georgia was also granted.
NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe began 25 years ago, with Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, former members of the Warsaw Pact, the communist bloc’s military alliance. In 1999, when NATO turned 50, the atmosphere was one of euphoria: the Cold War was believed to have been won, Russia was seen as a partner.
Two years earlier, Moscow had assured in a treaty that it would have no restrictions on the military league’s expansion eastward. In 2004, the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania followed. Albania and Croatia arrived in 2009; and in 2017, Montenegro and North Macedonia, both part of the former Yugoslavia.
However, in the early 2000s, Russian President Vladimir Putin began to criticize NATO’s eastern route. He claimed that when the German Democratic Republic (GDR) joined the alliance in 1990, during reunification, the Soviet Union was promised that expansion would not touch the former Soviet zone of influence. However, this was never put in writing.
In 2008, NATO promised in principle to accept Georgia and Ukraine. It was there, at the latest, that Putin activated his strategic mechanisms: after occupying parts of Georgia, he annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014 and began officially supporting pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country Neighbor. In 2022, the general invasion of Ukraine began. Despite this – or perhaps precisely for this reason – NATO keeps the door open to new memberships.
“NATO is stronger than ever”?
In essence, the situation is the same as when NATO was founded on April 4, 1949, in Washington: the “free West” seeks to militarily confront the growing threat from the East, with mutual support, under the shield of nuclear weapons of the United States. It’s the Cold War reloaded.
“As far as the threat situation and NATO’s reaction are concerned, everything appears as before: collective defense is the central task again, there is no doubt about it,” says Matthias Dembinski of the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research . The crucial difference, however, is the strong distrust of the alliance’s leading country, the United States. If the new American president is Donald Trump, it could be the end of the principle of mutual support, which has been in force until now.
According to Dembinski, “in the worst hypothetical case” the Europeans would have a double task: “compensating both for the US leadership role and taking charge of the military contributions that the country has given to NATO so far. It is a titanic task”.
The current American president, Joe Biden, evokes Article 5 of the NATO Charter as something “sacred and inviolable”, according to which an attack on one member is an attack on all. At the organization’s last summit, in 2023, in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, he described the current situation optimistically: “Today our alliance is a bastion of global stability and security, as it has been for more than seventy years. The NATO is stronger, more energized and more united than ever.”
The biggest threat to the alliance
Conflict researcher Dembinski agrees that confrontation with Russia and joint support for Ukraine currently consolidate the alliance, although he acknowledges the friction and inertia resulting from having 32 members, with partly conflicting interests : this intermittently places her “faced with an existential challenge”.
“But the interesting thing about NATO is that it has managed to overcome every crisis so far, and they have been tough. So far, its ability to adapt has been astonishing.”
For German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, NATO’s current challenge is to readjust, moving from international missions to the neglected protection of its own territory. We need to get back to our roots, and very quickly, he says.
“In a sense, we are turning the wheel in the middle of the race: we are already stopping the flow of mobilizations for international crises, missions abroad. We need to regain momentum towards national defense and alliance. This requires a moment : We are right in this process and I realize that things are dynamic.”
The future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will depend on the outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine, although the latter is not even a member state, former NATO chief spokesperson and communications director Jamie Shea points out: this is a question of credibility for the alliance.
“Even if Ukraine manages to win and liberate its territory, Russia will remain evil and vengeful: it will not love NATO. Unfortunately, Russia will remain the greatest threat to NATO for many years.”
Source: Terra

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