Analysts consulted by the Central Bank began to see less monetary easing this year and next, although they maintained the prospect of a new 0.5 percentage point cut in the Selic base interest rate at the next meeting.
The Focus survey released by the BC on Tuesday shows the estimate for the Selic at the end of 2024 has risen to 9.50%, from the 9.13% median of previous projections. For 2025 the projection was 9.0%, after 19 weeks at 8.50%.
The Selic is currently at 10.75% and experts consulted by the BC continue to predict that it will be reduced to 10.25% at the May 7 and 8 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). However, the next meeting in June saw a cut of only 0.25 percentage points, compared to 0.50 points last week.
The changes come in the wake of comments by Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto, reinforcing uncertainty over monetary policy and major pricing in the interest market, pointing to a cut of just 0.25 percentage points in the Selic in May – and not 0.50. point, as the BC had reported.
Last week Campos Neto presented several scenarios for the future work of the BC and mentioned a possible reduction in the pace of cuts in the basic interest rate, always placing the evolution of the level of uncertainty as a condition, especially in the international context.
Focus, a survey that captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, also highlighted that the HICP increase expectation increased to 3.73% and 3.60% this year and next respectively, from 3.71% and 3.56% the previous week. . For the following two years the bill remains at 3.50%.
The center of the official target for inflation in 2024, 2025 and 2026 is 3.00%, always with a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
For Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the growth estimate in 2024 improves by 0.07 percentage points, to 2.02%, while for 2025 it remains at 2.0%.
Source: Terra
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