Nunes appears with 25%, Boulos, 23%, and Marçal, 20%; the margin of error is three percentage points
A new Quaest poll shows that the fight for the mayoral post of São Paulo is fierce among the candidates Ricardo Nunes (MDB), Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Pablo Marcal (PRTB). With 25%, 23% and 20% of voting intentions respectively, the three are technically tied for the leadership. The poll was published this Tuesday (24).
Since the last poll conducted on September 18, Ricardo Nunes recorded a slight increase, going from 24% to 25%, while Guilherme Boulos maintained the same 23% and Pablo Marçal followed with 20%. Datena (PSDB) fell from 8% to 6%, lagging behind Tabata Amaral (PSB), which went from 7% to 8%.
The technical draw remains
The research shows a very controversial scenario for the São Paulo municipality. The margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 3 percentage points, which maintains the technical link between the three main candidates. Commissioned by TV Globo, the survey interviewed 1,200 people between September 21 and 23, with a 95% confidence level.
What is the scenario of spontaneous research?
In the spontaneous poll, in which the names of the candidates are not presented to the voters, Guilherme Boulos is in the lead with 16%, followed by Pablo Marçal and Ricardo Nunes, both with 14%. The majority of voters are still undecided, representing 46% of those interviewed.
Quaest Takes Trends to Second Round
The study also analyzed the possible scenarios for a possible second round. Ricardo Nunes would beat both Guilherme Boulos and Pablo Marçal. In the duel between Boulos and Marçal, the PSOL candidate appears numerically ahead, but technically both remain tied.
- Nunes x Boulos: Nunes would have 49% against Boulos’ 32%.
- Nunes x Marcal: Nunes would reach 52%, while Marçal would get 25%.
- Boulos x Marçal: Boulos would be in the lead with 41% against Marçal’s 36%.
How do voters position themselves?
The survey also analyzed the firmness of voters’ votes. The majority, 61%, said their choice was already final. Among Ricardo Nunes’ voters, 57% said their vote was final, up from 51% in the previous survey. For Pablo Marçal’s voters, this percentage increased from 60% to 71%. Among Boulos’ supporters, 71% believed their choice was final, up from 65% previously.
Source: Terra
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