The market increases the inflation projection for 2025 for the eleventh time in the Focus, the estimate for Selic increases in 2026

According to the latest 2024 edition of the Focus, the financial market has raised its inflation forecasts for the eleventh time in a row for the end of 2025 and at the same time also increased expectations for the basic interest rate at the end of 2026. report published by the Central Bank this Monday.

According to a survey conducted by the BC among a hundred economists, the forecast for the IPCA at the end of next year is now 4.96% annually, up from 4.84% the previous week, remaining above the target ceiling, which is 4.5%. It was the 11th consecutive time that economists consulted by the monetary authority raised their projections for price increases next year.

Also for 2025, economists also raised their estimate of the dollar, now at 5.96 reais, compared to 5.90 the previous week, in the ninth consecutive week in which they raised their closing forecasts for the North American currency for 2025. Economists still maintain the estimate for the Selic at the end of next year, at 14.75%, and have marginally reduced the growth estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), now at 2.01%, compared to 2.02%.

For 2026, the survey showed that, for the fifth consecutive week, economists raised the projection for the Selic, now at 12%, from 11.75% the previous week. Estimates for the dollar have also been raised – for the seventh consecutive week, now at 5.90 reais compared to 5.84 reais – and for inflation, currently at 4.01%, compared to 4% a week ago . Regarding economic growth, the survey showed a slight reduction in forecasts, currently at 1.8%, compared to 1.9%

As for the year ending Tuesday, the market raised its estimate of the dollar for the fourth consecutive week, forecasting it at 6.05 reais compared to 6 reais the previous week, maintaining this year the expectation of GDP growth at 3.49% and the HICP projection was slightly reduced, placing it at 4.9%, compared to 4.91%, confirming the expectation that inflation will exceed the target ceiling.

The dollar closed Friday, the penultimate trading session of 2024, selling at 6.1926 reais amid continued market distrust in the fiscal policy of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government.

This month, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) raised the SELIC by 1 percentage point and surprised the market by predicting two more increases of the same size for January and March, after citing the risk of worsening inflation dynamics resulting since the government’s announcement of fiscal measures.

Source: Terra

Rose

Rose James is a Gossipify movie and series reviewer known for her in-depth analysis and unique perspective on the latest releases. With a background in film studies, she provides engaging and informative reviews, and keeps readers up to date with industry trends and emerging talents.