Despite a weaker result, the secretary Guilherme Mello of economic policy states that the situation is “positive from the point of view of activity” and that growth remains “close to its potential”
Brasilia – The secretary to the economic policy of Ministry of Finance, Guilherme Melloassessed Estadão/Transmission that the growth of GDP By 2025 it will be less than 2024, reflecting the delayed effects of monetary policy with the rate Selic more contractist. This impact has already been noticed by the last quarter of 2024. For this year, the projection is a 2.3%feed.
“We hope that this year of 2025 the growth of GDP will be less than 2024, precisely by the delayed effects of monetary policy, but still robust growth for an economy that has the lowest unemployment rate in its history, the highest level of salary, therefore it is in a positive situation from the point of activity. The growth of 2025 should support Brazil, which remains close to its potential,” he said. “
Spe’s expectation is that the first and second quarter of this year are positive, especially due to a very good harvest. “The year 2025 should probably have the largest harvest in history, which moves not only the agricultural sector, but also the service sector, storage, transport and industrial sector of agricultural machinery and tools,” he said.
It is expected that the first half of the year will be quite strong, but pulled by Agro, who has not worked well in 2024. “This should also help with the food price, a good harvest with more food supply should reduce the pressure on the food price,” he said.
Investment
The secretary evaluated that the result of the 2024 GDP (one growth of 3.4%) was very positive from the point of view of the composition and also to bring significant growth in investments.
Mello stressed that the performance of the Brazilian economy in 2024 represent “a good surprise” compared to market expectations at the beginning of the year, which expected about 1.5%. The progress of 3.4% of the GDP reflects the increase in work income, but mainly the resumption of investments and the improvement of the composition.
“In the previous year (2023)Although the GDP has grown by 3.2%, we observed a decline in investments. This year (2024)NO. It is a slightly larger GDP, but with a growth of significant investments, over 7% in advance in the year, “he said.
Mello highlighted the recovery of industry, which is a dynamic sector that generates good jobs and the significant result of the services, which has compensated for the performance of agriculture. For this sector, 2024 was a year marked by the violation of the harvest, by the climatic crisis and a smaller harvest than that of 2023. “From the point of view of the composition, it was a very positive GDP, many people did not believe in the ability of industry and recovered investments and showed a lot of strength in 2024?
Source: Terra
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