Justin Trudeau’s party was walking for almost a certain defeat – until the President of the United States began to threaten Canada in the 51st American state.
If I had asked the Canadians a few months ago that they would win the next general elections of the country, most would have planned a decisive victory for the conservative party.
This result does not seem like this right now.
After the threats of the President of the United States Donald Trump against Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s liberal party has increased in the polls, reducing the two -digit leadership that their conservative rivals had had for the mid -2023.
The drastic change in the political scenario of the country reflects the way in which Trump rates and their repeated appeals to make Canada “the 51st American state” has substantially modified the priorities of Canadian voters.
Trump’s rhetoric “rejected all the other questions” who were in the Canadian mind before the American inauguration on January 20, Luc Turgeon, professor of political science at the University of Ottawa Notes.
This has even managed to give a new mood to the unpopular Trudeau, whose approval rate has increased by 12 points since December. The prime minister, of course, will not be much longer in power, having announced his resignation at the beginning of this year.
This Sunday (09/03), the liberals will declare the results of the controversy for the leadership to determine who takes on the party that commands a precarious minority government.
The new leader will have two immediate decisions to make: how to respond to Trump’s threats and when to call a general election. The response to the first dilemma will certainly influence the second.
A federal election should be detained by October 20, but can be summoned this week.
The research indicates that many Canadians still want a change in the upper part. But how this change would be – a liberal government under a new leadership or a complete change for conservatives – is now unknown, says Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research Group, based in Toronto.
“So far there has been a great loss for conservatives,” he says to the BBC.
This is because the center-right party led by Pierre Poiievre has been effective in its messages on issues that have occupied the Canadian mind in recent years: the increase in living costs, the inaccessibility of accommodation, crime and an overload health system.
Postilvre managed to connect these social problems to what called Trudeau’s “disastrous” policies and promised a return to common sense policy.
But with Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s threats to Canada’s economic security and even his sovereignty, this message has become obsolete, says Lyle. His research suggests that most of the country is now more afraid of Trump’s presidency and the impact he will have in Canada.
Trump 25% rates on all Canadian imports in the United States, some of which have been on pause until April 2, can be devastating for the economy of Canada, which sends three quarters of all its products in the United States. Consequently, the authorities have provided up to one million jobs and Canada can recess if the property tax persists.
Trudeau did not leave no doubt how seriously he is guiding the threat when he told journalists this week that Trump’s declaration at the US rates – the flow of Fenetanil through the border – was false and unjustified.
“What it wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because it will make it easier to attack us,” the prime minister warned.
“In many ways, it is a fundamental and complete question about the survival of the country,” says Turgeon to the BBC.
The key question in the next elections is: who would be better positioned to defend Canada against Trump.
Conservatories are still ahead in the polls, with the latest investigations that suggest that 40% of the voters support them. The fortune of the liberal, meanwhile, has been revived, with their support that rises to just over 30% – 10 points above January.
The liberals try to highlight the similarities between the conservative leader and the republican president.
In the debate on the leadership last week, the candidates reported to Poilievre as “our small version of Trump here at home” and said he was trying to “imitate” the President of the United States. An attack by the Liberal Party Juss Clip using similar phrases, such as “False news” and “radical left”.
There are clear differences, however, between the two politicians, in terms of style and substance. And Trump himself has minimized any parallels, telling the British magazine The viewer In a recent interview that Poilievre “is not enough sorceress”, in reference to the slogan of his campaign makes American Great Again, or makes America again great.
However, the research suggests a decline in support of conservatives. A recent research by the National Researcher of Angus indicates that the Canadians believe that the favorite of liberal leadership, Mark Carley, is better equipped to face Trump on tariff and commercial issues compared to latervre.
The former Central Canadian and English banker is boasting his experience in dealing with economic crises, including the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit.
And the change in the political climate forced conservatives to adapt their messages to the electorate.
If the elections are soon evoked, the campaign will take place at a time when Trump’s threats have inspired a ferocious patriotism among the Canadians. Many are boycott American products in their local supermarkets or even erasing travel to the United States.
Professor Turgeon says that this “union around the flag” has become a key theme of Canadian politics.
The conservatives abandoned their slogan “Canada is broken”, which, according to Lyle, runs the risk of apparent “antiprophotic” and adopted “Canada First”.
Conservatives also redirected their attacks to me. Before the Trump rates, they published announcements saying that it is “just like Justin” in an attempt to turn it on on Trudeau. But in recent weeks, conservatives have started to investigate the loyalty of transport to Canada.
In particular, they wondered if he played a role in changing the Brookfield Asset Management headquarters – a Canadian investment company – from Toronto to New York when he acted as president.
Carley replied that she left the company when the decision was made, but the documents of the company reported by the public issuer CBC show that the Council approved the change in October 2024, when Carry was still in Brookfield.
The measure, and the error of transporting her involvement with her, were criticized by the editorial committee of the largest newspaper in Canada, Globe and Mail, which wrote Thursday (03/03) that transport should be transparent with the Canadians.
More generally, the newspaper wrote: “Every party leader must understand that Canada is entering a period of uncertainty that lasts for years. The next prime minister will have to appeal to the confidence of the Canadians to lead the country where he has to go, but he may not want to go”.
Given the anxiety that the repercussions between the Canadians, Lyle states that any ambiguity on Carry’s loyalty to the country can be harmful to him and the liberals.
It doesn’t matter who the elections is, one thing is certain: Trump will continue to influence and reshape the Canadian policy, just like he did in the United States.
Source: Terra
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