The text, which goes to the presidential penalty, provides for a positive balance of $ 15 billion in the 2025 accounts, ignoring the expense and overestimation of the recipes
Brasilia-The National Congress approved Thursday 20, the 2025 budget, three months late, expected the budget piece to be voted before Christmas. In the text approved by parliamentarians, who go to the presidential sanction, there is a forecast of a positive balance of R $ 15 billion in public accounts – which has ignored the increase in expenses and the lower projection of experts and technicians of the legislator himself. In addition, Congress members used part of the tax package economy approved last year to increase the value of parliamentary amendments, which will add $ 50 billion.
The congress has chosen to retain federal revenues at $ 22.5 billion this year, while the technicians recommended a more conservative approach due to the dynamics of the economy this year. While the bill estimates a surplus of $ 15 billion due to the Turbo collection, the independent tax institution of the Senate (IFI) says that the government should close the year with a deficit of about $ 15 billion, indicating a negative result, in the opposite direction.
Inside the project, they have unlike that will hardly be implemented, such as R $ 28.6 billion in the performance of the quality vote in Carf (administrative advice of tax appeals), the Federal Revenue Court. By 2024, the government has declared that it could collect $ 54.7 billion with this measure, but less than $ 300 million actually entered the public coffers.
By 2025, the members of the economic team have already admitted that the measure will not once again generate the expected effects. In addition, the government has designed the increase in the social contribution on net income (CSLL) and the interests on net assets (JCP) for companies – a measure that has not been approved.
In the part of the expenses, the congress increased the projection of the expenditure for the social security performance by $ 8 billion, after having increased the minimum wage and inflation, which have a direct impact on the amount of payments on retirees and pensioners and also in the unemployment insurance and in the salary allowance.
The amount was presented by the Ministry of Planning and Budget and the speaker replied exactly what the government requested at this point. The consultants of the House of Representatives, however, have indicated that the increase in mandatory expenses will generate even higher pressure, of 32.8 billion dollars in this year’s budget.
“The budget is right, balanced and meets the needs of Brazil,” said the speaker of the project, Senator Angelo Colonel (PSD-Ba), reading the opinion on the joint commission of the budget (CMO). “Perhaps it is not the perfect piece, but it was a condiment that can contemplate the national congress, the judiciary, the executive power and the Brazilian people in general.”
Bolsa family
The legislator also approved a cut of 7.7 billion dollars in Bolsa Familia, which was $ 159.5 billion of $, and 4.8 billion dollars in the full education program, which was also restored at the request of the government, to incorporate combing measures and the exhausted cutting package approved last year. The speaker also included 3 billion dollars to allow gas aid this year, after the government attempted to increase the program from the budget and not to position the necessary resources for the benefit of the families served.
The football program was only $ 1 billion and total expenditure can reach $ 15.5 billion. The Federal Court of Audit (TCU) determined the inclusion of the values in the budget piece, which has not yet been made.
The budget reserved only R $ 80.9 million for the Fund of compensation of tax services, created by the tax reform to compensate the states for the end of the ICMS incentives – the necessary amount was $ 8 billion. The constitutional amendment approved in 2023 requested the union to deposit the amount by 2025, but the government did not provide for expenses.
With this rearrangement in the accounts, part of the fiscal space open with the shopping cutting package was occupied by parliamentary amendments, resources appointed by deputies and senators for their electoral strongholds. The congress has increased by 39 billion dollars to $ 50.4 billion, with the inclusion of R $ 11.4 billion in amendments of the Commission – heir to the secret budget, a regime revealed by Estodão.
The government has estimated a cost saving for the tax package, due to the lower growth that resources will have after last year. The amendments of the Commission, however, were not in the budget sent by the government to the congress and were included during the mixed budget commission.
The delay of the vote is explained by the amendment of the amendments
The delay in this year’s budget vote had as a background impasse in the payment of parliamentary amendments, caused by a decision by Minister Florenio Dino della Corte Supreme (STF) last year. The vote was finally unlocked after a government promise to pay amendments that were not paid in 2024 and released new resources from the ministries this year.
Dino had sent the government to freeze the transfers because of the lack of transparency on who are the deputies and senators who sent resources to states and municipalities, as well as the criteria for the transfer.
Since then, the congress has approved a complementary bill and a resolution of the internal procedures to respond to the orders of Dino, but has not actually transmitted that the parliamentary amendments are made without the identification of the author of the transfer. Last Tuesday 18, Dino asked for new explanations from the congress and the expectation is that he will give the last word in the coming weeks.
The government leader at the congress, Randolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), states that, according to Planalto, the peaceful resolution and dissolves the impasse between Parliament and the Supreme Court.
“There is no reason for the government to diverge a sovereign decision of the congress, approved with 95% of the votes. It will not differ from this. If there is something to adapt, who should speak is the Stf,” said Randolfe.
The Government aims to open the public account deficit in 2025, but there is a tolerance to a negative result of 31 billion dollars authorized by the law on the budget guidelines (LDO) – the so called “floor” of the objective. Respect for this objective will be possible only because the Federal Supreme Court (STF) has authorized the executive power to remove 44.1 billion dollars in precut spending (judicial debts of the Union) from the objective.
If the projections of the economists are confirmed, the financial statements will be inflated and a cut in the expenses of the federal government will be necessary throughout the year to achieve the objective of primary result so called – which is the balance between income and expenses, not to mention the interest of the debt – and the tax framework, which limits the growth of public spending. What can alleviate is an increase in the collection of federal taxes, as happened in the first two months of the year, but the scenario is uncertain due to the performance of the economy in the future.
Debt is still worried
According to the executive director of the IFI Marcus Pestana, the financial statements are still far from the balance of the accounts to the point of stopping the growth of public indebtedness, which has reached 75.3% of GDP in January and should exceed 80% of GDP at the end of the year. “The budget is a compass and has a solidity of the projections, but the reality will indicate the degree of unrealism of the budget piece,” says Pestana.
The strong commitment of the budget for compulsory expenses, such as salaries and pensions, and direct transfers of social programs, such as Bolsa Familia, is still a problem to be addressed and the budget continues to depend on the growth of revenue. In the first quarter of 2025, the government had real growth (above inflation) of 3% in the collection.
The result in the future, however, can be influenced by the performance of the economy, the reduction of salary, the increase in the interest rate and the international scenario with the policy of the President of the United States Donald Trump.
“We see no difficulties that the government achieves the goal, but this is in a very distant picture of a strategic objective, which is to generate a primary surplus of 2.5% of GDP to stop the growth of the debt and with an absolutely mediocre level of investment compared to other countries with more promising rates,” says the expert. The investments were totaled by 89.4 billion dollars in the ratio, considered small for eyelashes compared to a budget of $ 2.3 trillion dollars.
The government receives more breath to make a mess with the budget alone
The government has returned to the last minute negotiation a restriction that had been imposed by the speaker, Senator Angelo Coronel to a manager’s maneuver to move, without authorization by the legislator, 30% of his expenses. The parliamentarian had limited the authorization to 10% of the trade union expenditure, but after the vote, the budget commission, accepted the percentage requested by the Palazzo Palazzo.
The Lula Administration also obtained authorization to move, without the permission of Parliament, 25% of the PAC expenses – the equivalent of R $ 15 billion.
Consequently, the government can host the expenditure for the budget program, as determined by the TCU within 120 days, without resorting to the authorization of the congress to cancel the other expenses as compensation.
Senator Radolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), leader of the government at the congress, said that, despite the green light to move, the government will send a bill to insert the budget, the mastery of the pavilion pays to high school students to encourage the stay of young and teenagers in their studies.
My home my life is turbo
The budget approved at the congress includes $ 27.33 billion of expenses for my home, Minha Vida, one of the programs that are the flagship of the PT. The Lula Administration will launch a new program of the program, aimed at families of the middle class, with an income up to $ 12,000 – today, the families served must have a maximum income of $ 8,000. For this, 18.33 billion dollars have been reserved.
President Lula signed a provisional measure (MP) which authorizes the use of the social fund, formed with pre-all resources, for this mode. Money is classified as a financial expenditure, therefore outside the roof of the tax framework, and being a loan, it should return to the government coffers.
The funds for track 1 of the program, aimed at the low -income population, were $ 9.2 billion, with a cut of 1.24 billion dollars compared to the proposal of the original government.
Source: Terra
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