With the fall of production in the United States, Brazil has become the main supplier of the product for the US market. But the 50% supplement can affect prices, exports and works related to the sector.
The announcement of the President of the United States Donald Trump to apply a 50% supplement to Brazilian products has turned on a warning signal among orange juice exporters.
With the production of autumn in the United States, Brazil has become the main supplier for the US market – and also for the rest of the world. But the rate can affect prices, reduce exports and threaten jobs related to the sector.
Together, the European Union countries were the main destination for fruit juice, which represented 51.4% of products exports between July 2024 and June 2025, said Citrusbr (National Association of Citrus Exporter).
But only the United States represent 41.7% of this market.
The state of Saint Paul concentrates Brazilian production: it represents 78% of national orange production and concentrates over 80% of the production of fruit juice.
The impact of the rates on exports of orange juice and other industrial sectors have even made the governor, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), alleviating his speech. The state represents almost a third of Brazilian exports to the United States.
Tarcisio, in his first reaction to the announcement of Trump on 12 July, blamed President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and said that the pedestal put his “ideology above the economy”.
“They had time to honor the dictatorships, defend the censorship and attack the greatest direct investor in Brazil,” he wrote in X. “The responsibility is the one that rules. The narratives will not solve the problem.”
Two days later, the governor, who has already used the red hood Make America big again (Make America Big Trump again) said that the problem of the supplement of Brazilian products requires “union of efforts and synergy” and can be resolved if politics is put aside.
“We must be equal to the hand now to resolve, put aside the political question,” he said in a press conference on Saturday (12/7), after an event of the Agenda in the municipality of Cerquilho.
The vice -president and minister of industry and commerce, Geraldo Alfine (PSB), should meet representatives of various sectors that is possibly affected, including orange juice producers.
ALCKmin has announced that Tuesday will hold meetings with representatives of at least 14 industrial and agri -food sectors (15/7) as part of the work of an interministerial committee to be created to respond to the Trump rate.
Brazil began to export orange juice in the 80s and, in the following decade, consolidated as the largest supplier in the world. Today, the country is responsible for most of the transformed orange consumed in the world.
“São Paulo and Florida are the main regions of commercial orange juice”, explains Professor Margarete Boteon, citrus researcher at CEPEA (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), Esalq/USP.
“In the 90s, Brazil has a very large increase in exports. Florida also grows production, but much more focused on the internal market.”
In recent decades, however, the United States depend on imports in Brazil. The reason is a bacterial disease called green citrus green, also known as Huanglongbing (HLB), with a first record in 2005 and devastated the production in Florida in the following years.
“It is a disease that has no care and that ends the orange orchards. Or beginnings and renewals, or will be. It will also exist in the State of Saint Paul. But Florida has had a great drop in production in the last 10 years due to this disease and Brazil has been resistant.”
With HLB, Florida is no longer self -sufficient, even with a smaller internal market. Brazil is already not only served the internal market, but exports to the United States, in Mexico and, above all, to the European Union – today, its largest customer.
In the first four months of 2025, Brazil represented 68% of the imports of Orange juice from the United States.
The 10% rate is already high; 50% can be devastating
In April, the United States imposed an additional 10% rate on Brazilian products, including orange juice. But it is still early to measure the real effects of the supplement, says Boton.
“You have no way of evaluating the impact of the rate because, when it started to be applied, Brazil had a very large juice deficit and the United States also had very low actions. You would hardly have had an effect there that could capture short -term, given the offer deficit.”
According to her, only of the second semester, with the replacement of the inventories, it will be possible to better observe the impacts on prices and costs.
However, if completed from August 1, the 50% rate tends to have immediate effects.
“The impact of 50% would be obvious and, of course. We always put uncertainties, because nobody knows if it will also be 50% or is a game,” he says. “The big question is: at what price?”, The teacher says, who says that the supplement, when hoping the product, will make Brazilian juice less competitive.
“If the American buys a ton of orange juice for $ 3,000, it will pay almost $ 2,000 in rates,” calculates, since the supplement is beyond the rate that the Brazilian product already pays $ 415 per tonne.
“Become more expensive in the United States, this causes an inflationary effect, the question, in turn, the purchase falls here. So it is a negative effect. This has no doubts,” he says. “What can happen? The American industry is even smaller if you don’t buy juice, because it can become too expensive. And this has a brutal impact on Brazilian companies.”
But at the same time, the United States depend on the Brazilian juice and have no other short -term source to provide their market, analyzes the researcher Esalq/USP.
Depending on the market reaction, the effects can be recessive for the Brazilian export sector, says the professor and researcher of Fgvagro CÃcero Lima.
“The orange juice already has a relatively high rate. However, we have had space on the market. Brazilian production has satisfied this American demand. Now, with a rate of 50% on top of these 10% that we already have, the conditions are really difficult.”
The internal demand does not absorb the surplus
Although Brazil stops exporting part of its production, it is unlikely that it reduces prices in the internal market. It is possible, but not immediately, an export compensation is possible in other markets, but not immediate, says CÃcero Lima.
“This is not a relationship for one. It may be that I already have my request for orange juice in the European Union saturated. So it does not mean that with every liter the United States stop buying from me, I will be able to put in the European Union. If the European Union and China already have its saturated question, I cannot enter this product there.”
And, contrary to popular belief, a surplus should not straighten the product for the Brazilian consumer, supports the FGV-Agro researcher.
“If I am an orange manufacturer and I am not able to sell export and my internal market has already served, I will not sell here, because the price will decrease, since the offer would be much larger than the demand,” he says.
“So I will leave my inactive production, I will make investments and hire work. This generates a vicious circle harmful to Brazil.”
From the point of view of demand, it says that internal consumption has little space to grow. “The replacement of tea, water, firm or coffee with orange juice is very low. It is possible to increase the income, the price may fall a little, but the families do not exchange.”
In this scenario, Lima stresses that the Brazilian government could accelerate negotiations with other markets.
“The current government can create channels that facilitate exports with other markets, for example with the European Union, to be able to put the largest volume of orange juice there”.
But there are limits of action, since any export protection policy can be interpreted as dumping – that is, the practice of selling products in a foreign market at a lower price of its internal market or its production cost.
“What the government can do is promote our products in other markets. And for this we have tools. We have a peak [Agência Brasileira de Promoção de Exportações e Investimentos]. We have the Ministry of Foreign Affairs itself. We have the European Mercosur-Union agreement, which has already been signed and is about to regulate. “
Other agreements may also be resumed. “We sleep since 2023, with Canada, the United Kingdom and Asean [Associação de Nações do Sudeste Asiático]. These are negotiated that were deepened and stopped. We can do our homework and insert everything into the implementation phase. “
The impact is also in the United States
The supplement should mainly damage Brazilian exporters, but its side effect does not spare the United States, says Professor Margarete Boteon.
He explains that the orange juice purchased by Brazil is not bottled on the shelves of American supermarkets: it enters as input in a production chain that involves the filling of local factories to employment in the distribution centers.
“It’s not a cell phone, a ready -made product. We sell an input that enters an American sector. So, it collapses here too,” he warns. “This juice goes to the factories of Coca-Cola, for the large jackets. Generates employment, pay taxes, move the sector there. There is no short-term substitute.”
For her, unlike other products such as coffee, which can be purchased in multiple markets, Orange has a concentrated offer. “There is no other player with the possibility of replacing Brazil in volume and short -term quality.”
Source: Terra
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